Signal study 001 · registered 30 Jul 2026, 10:55 CDT
Market Dislocation
A 30-day prospective test of whether a crowded yen-funded carry trade becomes a broader forced-deleveraging event.
Retrieving the latest available observations.
The fault line, observed
Prices are near-live. Credit and funding series update more slowly and show their latest available observation. Direction matters more than any single level.
- USD / JPY
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- Yen per dollar. A rapid fall means yen-funded positions become more expensive to repay.Observation pending
- Yen appreciation · 1 day
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- Acceleration is the first trigger sensor.Observation pending
- Yen appreciation · 5 days
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- Three percent begins the registered trigger condition; five percent is severe.Observation pending
- VIX
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- Above 25 indicates stress. Above 30 with backwardation is stronger transmission evidence.Observation pending
- Volatility curve
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- Backwardation means immediate protection costs more than later protection.Observation pending
- Nasdaq · 5 days
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- A crowded, high-duration risk-asset transmission channel.Observation pending
- Nikkei · 5 days
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- The closest equity market to the funding currency.Observation pending
- US high-yield OAS
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- Broad credit confirmation. A rapid 100 bp widening is part of the cascade test.Observation pending
- SOFR − IORB
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- A secured-funding pressure gauge. Ten basis points is the registered stress threshold.Observation pending
The registered protocol
No moving the goalposts.
Hypothesis: a significant financial-market dislocation may be approaching, with yen carry-trade unwinding as a plausible transmission mechanism.
Window: 30 July 2026, 10:55 CDT through 29 August 2026, 10:55 CDT.
Model: systemic hazard is structural fragility multiplied by trigger pressure and transmission velocity. Fragility alone is not a prediction. A trigger without transmission is a correction. The study reaches Cascade only when all three converge.
- Full hit: yen/carry or another identifiable leverage trigger, broad risk-asset and volatility stress, and credit or funding transmission occur together.
- Partial hit: the study reaches Triggered and produces a significant dislocation without broad credit or funding contagion.
- Miss: neither condition occurs inside the fixed observation window.
Observation record
The trail stays public.
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Fragile
Crowded short-yen positioning and a sharp yen reversal were present. Broad credit and funding transmission had not been observed.
Registered baseline